Keeping an Eye on Isaac

I’m keeping my eye on this one, Till it makes the turn into the Ohio river valley.

Tropical Depression ISAAC Public Advisory


000
WTNT34 KWNH 310305
TCPAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 40...CORRECTED
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL092012
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012

CORRECTED FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...NE OF SHREVEPORT.
ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SSW OF LITTLE ROCK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH... KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 000 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
OF ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EASTERN
LOUSIANA.

COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI COASTLINES.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY.
THESE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPREAD INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE ONGOING DROUGHT WILL TEND TO KEEP
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING DOWN INITIALLY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD THREAT
OVER TIME.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 7 PM CDT

...ALABAMA...
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 11.07
MOBILE/BATES FIELD 9.67
WILMER 7.9 SE 8.75
FAIRHOPE 2.3 N 6.42
DAPHNE 1.8 ESE 5.87
THEODORE 8.0 SSE 5.12
POINT CLEAR 1.6 SSW 5.04
SILVERHILL 0.9 SSE 4.34
FOLEY 2.0 SSW 3.71

...ARKANSAS...
MONTICELLO AIRPORT 2.91
PINE BLUFF/GRIDER FIELD 2.63
EL DORADO/GOODWIN FIELD 1.71

...FLORIDA...
VERO BEACH 5.2 S 16.60
ROYAL PALM BEACH 5.0 W 16.29
BOYNTON BEACH 1.9 NNW 14.41
PORT ST LUCIE 1.5 NE 13.04
ABERDEEN 4.2 NNW 12.41
PALM CITY 4.0 SW 11.69
HOMESTEAD AFB 9.37
FORT PIERCE/ST LUCIE 9.18
WEST PALM BEACH INTL ARPT 8.64
VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT 7.66
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE APT 7.02
MIAMI/OPA LOCKA 6.64
POMPANO BEACH AIRPARK 5.33
WINTER HAVEN GILBERT ARPT 5.19
ORLANDO/HERNDON 5.12
HOLLYWOOD/NORTH PERRY ARPT 5.12

...GEORGIA...
GUYTON 1.9 S 5.60
BROOKLET 13.1 SE 4.60
RINCON 1.2 NNW 4.03
MONROE 5.6 NNE 3.11
JESUP 7.1 N 3.04
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD 2.53
ALMA/BACON CO. ARPT 2.49
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT 2.47
FORT STEWART/WRIGHT AAF 2.06
AUGUSTA/DANIEL FIELD 1.95
MOODY AFB/VALDOSTA 1.50

...LOUISIANA...
RESERVE 0.5 SSE 13.46
HAMMOND 2.3 WSW 11.93
TERRYTOWN 3.3 S 10.56
SLIDELL 10.40
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 10.29
ABITA SPRINGS 1.9 NE 10.15
BATON ROUGE/RYAN MUNI ARPT 4.57
BOOTHVILLE 4.20
MONROE RGNL ARPT 2.37
PATTERSON MEMORIAL ARPT 2.00
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 1.55
ALEXANDRIA/ESLER 1.50

...MISSISSIPPI...
KILN 3.3 N 17.04
MARION RAWS/COLUMBIA 15.02
SAUCIER 1.7 NNE 12.78
PICAYUNE 5.6 ENE 12.17
DIAMONDHEAD 1.5 NE 12.04
LONG BEACH 0.7 S 11.95
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD 10.93
GULFPORT-BILOXI 10.85
PASCAGOULA 10.67
KEESLER AFB/BILOXI 10.17
HATTIESBURG/CHAIN MUNI ARPT 9.44
HATTIESBURG/LAUREL 7.93
JACKSON/HAWKINS FIELD 4.03
MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD 4.00
JACKSON WFO 3.93
MERIDIAN NAS/MCCAIN 1.72

...NORTH CAROLINA...
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO. ARPT 4.07
JACKSONVILLE/ELLIS AIRPORT 1.50

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
MOUNT PLEASANT 5.5 NNE 9.08
PAWLEYS ISLAND 5.6 NNE 8.36
CHARLESTON 2.8 NE 7.36
JOHNS ISLAND 9.0 SE 6.44
MEGGETT 1.8 W 4.85
BEAUFORT MCAS 3.59
ROCK HILL-YORK CO. ARPT 2.89
DARLINGTON 1.75


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER RYAN

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 31/0300Z 33.5N 93.0W
12HR VT 31/1200Z 35.0N 93.3W
24HR VT 01/0000Z 36.9N 93.5W...
36HR VT 01/1200Z 38.3N 92.4W...
48HR VT 02/0000Z 38.9N 90.8W...
72HR VT 03/0000Z 39.0N 88.0W...
96HR VT 04/0000Z 39.0N 86.1W...
$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAHPCAT4+shtml/310305.shtml
 
Projected Path 
 

Water Vapor Via Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/09L_floater.html

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdeadly.shtml

“Perhaps the first human record of Atlantic tropical cyclones appears in Mayan hieroglyphics (Konrad 1985). By customarily building their major settlements away from the hurricane-prone coastline, the Mayans practiced a method of disaster mitigation (Konrad 1985) that, if rigorously applied today, would reduce the potential for devastation along coastal areas (e.g., Pilkey et al. 1984; Sheets 1990).
Many storms left important marks on regional history. In 1609, a fleet of ships carrying settlers from England to Virginia was struck by a hurricane. Some of the ships were damaged and part of the fleet grounded at Bermuda (The Encyclopedia Americana 1994). The passengers became Bermuda’s first inhabitants and their stories helped inspire Shakespeare’s writing of The Tempest (Carpenter and Carpenter 1993).
In several incidents, tropical cyclones destroyed otherwise invincible colonial armadas (Millas 1968; Hughes 1987). The French lost their bid to control the Atlantic coast of North America when a 1565 hurricane dispersed their fleet, allowing the Spanish to capture France’s Fort Caroline near present-day Jacksonville, Florida. In 1640, a hurricane partially destroyed a large Dutch fleet apparently poised to attack Havana. Another naval disaster occurred in 1666 to Lord Willoughby (the British Governor of Barbados) and his fleet of seventeen ships and nearly 2,000 troops. The fleet was caught in a hurricane near the Lesser Antilles. Only a few vessels were ever heard from again and the French captured some of the survivors. According to Sugg (1968), the 1640 and 1666 events secured, more or less, control of Cuba by the Spaniards and Guadeloupe by the French. More than two centuries later, commenting on the Spanish-American War, President McKinley declared that he feared a hurricane more than the Spanish Navy (Dunn 1971). McKinley’s concern translated to a revamped United States hurricane warning service, forerunner of today’s National Hurricane Center (NHC).”

Isaac reminds me of Hurricane Juan.
 Mainly due the threat it posed in the:

“Appalachian Mountains

Though not directly related to the hurricane, Juan’s tropical moisture combined with another low pressure system to drop large amounts of moisture across the Appalachian Mountains and the Mid-Atlantic. Many locations reported record amounts of rainfall from West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.
Flooding in West Virginia was the worst in the state’s history. The worst hit areas were the Cheat River and South Branch Potomac River basins. The remnants of Juan caused 38 fatalities and $578 million from the flooding.

Flash flooding on November 4 and 5 resulted in overflown rivers across much of Virginia, including the Roanoke River which rose 23 feet above its banks. The flooding resulted in 12 casualties in Virginia, with $800 million in damage (1985 USD).” 
Cheat Lake was flooding and they tried to open the flood gates which got stuck open and flooded the whole of the Mon valley.

The Election Day Flood  November 1985

“Highest floods of record occurred on the following Pittsburgh District rivers or river segments: Cheat, Tygart, West Fork, Buckhannon, plus upper and middle Monongahela, as far downstream as the Maxwell Locks and Dam,” the report noted.
The storm lasted from November 1-6, flooding virtually the entire Monongahela River Basin.
http://www.lrp.usace.army.mil/pao/h-1985.htm

I was stationed at Ft Polk and saw the news on the tube while I was pulling CQ. My Dad sent me  some paper clippings about the event. The next guys blog, Well he worked for the  Daily-Herald.

http://scottbeveridge.blogspot.com/search/label/%22Monongahela%20River%22%20flood
He’s right, Those who are born and raised around here abouts are used to floods and power outages.

The archives of the Brownsville Telegraph
* Election Day morning brought a nasty surprise to area residents.  Overnight the Monongahela River exceeded flood level and was still rising at press time.  At Maxwell Lock and Dam, area chief Richard Householder said the river level at 10 a.m. was 37.3 feet on the lower level of the lock, compared to a normal reading of 9 feet.  The river is already 5 feet above flood level and rising.  It appears the waters are rising considerably higher than originally estimated by the National Weather Service.  By late this morning, Dunlap’s Creek had risen to within one foot of Market Street.  Gallatin Bank, G. C. Murphy and other businesses reported basement flooding.  A number of voting places were forced to suspend voting or move the polls due to the flooding.  In West Virginia, officials announced that Cheat Lake was approaching Flood State 5, meaning the dam was in jeopardy of moving.

We’ll see what happens. Dragon out.

 

 
 
 
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About theelderdragon15601

Bleh.
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One Response to Keeping an Eye on Isaac

  1. Craig Cavanaugh says:

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